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Extreme weather events like catastrophic floods, famine-inducing droughts and storms could increase if countries fail to meet global warming targets, experts warn.
Under the UN-led Paris Agreement, signatories agreed to limit temperature increases to 2°C (3.6°F) or lower compared to pre-industrial levels.
States - Targets - Increase - Difference - Weather
Individual states set separate targets for a 3°C (5.4°F) increase and this 1°C (1.8°F) difference could lead to the devastating weather conditions, research suggests.
Greenhouse gas emissions will result in a more than 500 per cent increase in 'record-breaking warm nights' over parts of Europe and East Asia, they say.
Researchers - Stanford - University - Columbia - University
Researchers from the Stanford University, Columbia University and Dartmouth College expanded on previous work analysing historical climate data.
This showed how greenhouse gas emissions have increased the probability of recording-breaking hot, wet and dry events in the present climate.
Group - Models - Probability - Weather - Events
Now, the group has looked at similar models to estimate the probability of extreme weather events in the future under the 'aspirational' Paris Agreement commitments and those of individual countries.
While the 1°C (1.8°F) difference may seem negligible, experts found it is enough to have extreme consequences.
Professor - Noah - Diffenbaugh - Stanford - University
Professor Noah Diffenbaugh from Stanford University, who led the study, said: 'The really big increases in record-setting event probability are reduced if the world achieves the aspirational targets rather than the actual commitments.
'At the same time, even if those aspirational targets are reached, we still will be living in a climate that has substantially greater probability of unprecedented events than the one we're in now.'
Scientists - Rise - Temperature - Chance - Weather
Scientists previously found that the rise in global temperature has increased the chance of extreme weather events across more than 80 per cent of the globe.
Real-life events have become more common and more severe in recent years.
In 2017 alone,...
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