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The talk in California about secession is heating up again but it is an exercise in futility. In order to secede, Congress would have to vote on an amendment to the US Constitution, since a precedent created as a result of the Civil War says states cannot secede from the union. Both Houses of Congress would have to approve the amendment by a 2/3 vote, then would have to be ratified by 34 states.
Reaching two thirds in either house of Congress would be impossible. Even if several red states voted for secession they would not get the votes needed because the blue states of New York, Massachusetts and Illinois would oppose such a move vigorously. Why? Do the math.
Senate - Republicans - Majority - Members - California
Currently in the Senate, Republicans are the majority, counting caucusing members by 52-48. After California’s secession that majority would be 52-46, meaning that Democrats would have to recruit seven GOP members to kill a proposed bill by the Republicans. Now, they need only three. There’s no downside because no Republican would ever be elected to the Senate from California.
It is even worse in the House where Republicans have a sizable 240-194 lead or a 46-seat gap. But currently, California has 53 reps in the house, 39 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Eliminate them and Republicans would have a 226-155 lead. That means Democrats would need to take 36 seats to win back the majority.
California - Freedom - Coalition - Campaign - Lead
The California Freedom Coalition, the campaign that has taken the lead in the effort to break California off from the United States, sees similarities with Catalonia’s secessionist movement. But there’s an important caveat: they believe California has more legal tools at its disposal, creating an easier path to secession – if that’s what Californians decide they want.
“There are definitely similarities in the fiscal situation – we both give more than...
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