While we wish one of our favorite market commentators', Mint's Bill Blain, all the best as he recovers from his recent heart attack, we would like to share with readers his inaugural for 2017 note, which lays out his current concerns about the state of the markets, and the global economy.
Let me start by stating the issues causing me some worry:
Career - Years
Throughout my career, years ending in 7 haven’t been good.
1987 saw a massive stock market crash, in 1997 we got the Asian Financial Crisis, and 2007 saw the start of the Global Financial Crisis and consequences we’re still struggling with today. In the case of year 7s, the trend is not our friend.
Stock - Picking - Chartists - Stock - Cycle
I’m told by my stock picking chartists there is a 10-yr stock cycle that looks to have peaked. Many factors about this succession of market turnaround moments worry me – firstly, the scale of crisis seems to be multiplying as each 10-yrs event. A simple stock market rout in 1987 became near global catastrophe in 2007.
Thankfully we haven’t ever had the kind of absolute global market meltdown doomsters say will happen, but it does strike me that market moves – whether caused by an evil conjunction of rogue algorithims and Hi-Speed-Trading, or simple human foolishness – are becoming increasingly chaotic, thus...
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