In 2012, an incredibly important milestone may have passed on climate change, and none of us noticed. That year may have been when the world reached peak carbon dioxide emissions per person. If so, that would mark a key inflection point in the world’s collective efforts to dramatically decarbonize the global economy.
Global population is expected to continue to increase through the century, from about 7.8 billion people in 2020 to about 10.9 billion in 2100, according to the central estimate of the United Nations. That means that the only way for carbon dioxide emissions to be reduced will be to reduce the amount emitted per person, since we won’t be reducing the number of people like in the 1976 sci-fi film Logan’s Run.
Look - Data - Figure - Shows - Carbon
Let’s look at some data. The figure below shows global per capita carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry for the period 1979 to 2040. From 1970 to 2018 are observations, using data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on emissions and the United Nations on population. For the period 2019 through 2040 the graph shows per capita emissions for two scenarios. The red line shows emissions under the IEA Current Policies Scenario (CPS) which projects “how global energy markets would evolve if governments make no changes to their existing policies and measures.” The green line shows emissions under the IEA Stated Policies Scenario (SPS) which “reflects the impact of existing policy frameworks and today’s announced policy intentions.”
ROGER PIELKE JR.
Current - Polices - Scenario - Carbon - Dioxide
Under the Current Polices Scenario global per capita carbon dioxide emissions do not exceed the 2012 peak until the late 2030s. Under the Stated Policies Scenario, global per capita carbon dioxide emissions steadily decline to 2040. If governments follow through on their existing commitments – never guaranteed – or even partially meet those commitments, then the world is...
Wake Up To Breaking News!
You've go to put up with Free Speech to have Free Speech!