China Fourth Quarter Growth Seen Hovering At 6.0%, More Policy Support Expected: Reuters Poll | 1/15/2020 | Staff
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BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s economic growth likely hovered at its weakest in nearly 30 years in the fourth quarter as demand at home and abroad remained sluggish, though there were some signs of improvement late in the year as trade tensions with the United States eased.

The world’s second-largest economy is expected to have grown 6.0% in October-December from a year earlier, according to analysts polled by Reuters, unchanged from the previous quarter’s pace, which was the slowest since 1992 – the earliest quarterly data on record.

Forecasts - Analysts - Reuters - % - %

Forecasts by 65 analysts polled by Reuters ranged from 5.8% to 6.3% for the fourth quarter.

On a quarterly basis, growth likely stayed at 1.5% in Oct-Dec, also the same pace as in the preceding period, analysts said. The data will be released on Friday (0200 GMT).

GDP - Readings - Stocks - Commodity - Prices

Better-than-expected GDP readings could lift stocks and global commodity prices, and boost the yuan , which has already strengthened to multi-month highs in January on optimism over the U.S.-China trade deal.

5.9% in 2020, a separate Reuters poll showed, reinforcing views that Beijing will roll out more stimulus measures.

Jizhe - Head - National - Bureau - Statistics

Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, has said that China is expected to hit its annual growth target of 6-6.5% in 2019.

“But we need to look beyond the official headline numbers to the significant headwinds facing the economy,” said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics.

Unemployment - Consumer - Spending - Investment - Risks

“These include rising unemployment, depressed consumer spending and private investment and growing financial risks as the deleveraging and de-risking campaign enters a critical phase among increasing stress in the financial system.”

Chinese policymakers have pledged more support for the economy while avoiding the kind of massive stimulus of the past, which quickly juiced growth rates but left a mountain of debt.

Beijing - Growth - Target - %

Beijing plans to set a lower economic growth target of around 6% in 2020, relying on...
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