First Things | 6/5/2014 | John William O’Sullivan
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Make no mistake about it, the United Kingdom has now begun the process of breaking up. It may not happen today, it may not happen tomorrow, but it seems unlikely that the union that holds the country together will last another decade.

The election results show that Brexit has divided the country. In England, the Conservative Party rode pro-Brexit sentiment to a resounding victory. The only place that bucked this trend was London, which now looks set to become a sort of “Fortress Europa.” In Scotland the anti-Brexit vote enabled the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) to increase its number of seats from 35 to 48. In Northern Ireland the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lost 2 seats—which were picked up by the republican party, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). For the first time in history, republicans have more seats than unionists in Northern Ireland.

Lay - Land - Northern - Ireland - Process

This is the lay of the land: a Northern Ireland that looks set to start the process of merging with the South—something admitted on national television last night by former Conservative Chancellor George Osbourne; a Scotland that will be truculent in getting another referendum on independence in the face of Brexit; and an England divided between poorer regions that supported Brexit and a London that remains dogmatically pro-E.U.

How does this pan out? We should expect the London elite to become increasingly sympathetic to Scottish independence; Scotland will become a projection screen for the pro-European liberal fantasies of the great and good. We should also expect all parties to become increasingly uninterested in Northern Ireland, which will have to forge its own path—one that risks leading to violence.

Elite - Realities - Conservative - Party - Issues

The hyper-liberal British elite is going to get increasingly claustrophobic given these new realities. The British Conservative Party is not all that conservative on social issues, but it is to the...
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