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Whenever we discover a financial analyst who understands the new dimension in U.S. economics (rare) it is worth revisiting them from time-to-time. Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian was one of the first MSM pundits to: (a) accept the disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street via de-globalization; and (b) begin to explain why that matters in the era of Trump.
El-Erian appeared this morning on Fox Business News to discuss President Trump’s re-imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina. Additionally El-Erian discusses trade tensions, market outlooks, consumer strength, recession fears, and the drag the rest of the world is placing in the U.S. economy.
The U.S. economy is strong; all the fundamentals are solid. However, the multinationals on Wall Street -invested overseas- are more exposed. There is nothing that China and the EU can do to stop the de-globalization process; and efforts to stimulate their economy, more quantitative easing (pumping money) while the global supply chains are being shifted, are futile… they need “structural reform.” The multinationals are holding cash, waiting to see how it plays out.
Nations - Economy - Exports - Exposure - Downsides
The more a nations’ economy is dependent on exports, the more exposure they have to the inherent downsides of de-globalization. U.S. companies that are invested in these nations will naturally see diminishing returns on investment over time; some rapidly. President Trump’s trade policy is controlling the speed of that investment contraction.
The exposure of the multinationals keeps the stock market twitchy, yet the Main Street USA economy is thriving.
China - Economy - Products - US - Order
China’s economy is dependent on selling products to the U.S. in order to receive dollars. China takes those dollars and then purchases industrial goods from Europe. If China gets less dollars they purchase less from Europe. In essence both China and the EU are dependent on receiving dollars from a maintained trade imbalance. President Trump...
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A pox on both their houses!