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A poll released on Thursday by JMC Analytics and Polling shows that the race between Louisiana incumbent Democrat Gov. John Bel Edwards and Republican challenger Eddie Rispone is a dead heat two days before voters go to the polls on Saturday.
The poll showed that 45.5 percent of likely Louisiana voters support Rispone, while 45 percent support Edwards, with nine percent undecided. The poll of 600 likely voters was conducted between November 12 and November 13 and has a four percent margin of error.
Race - Wire - JMC - Executive - Summary
“This race will go down to the wire,” JMC noted in its executive summary.
“While Governor Edwards has lost a bit of support since the last [JMC] poll,” the executive summary continued, “Rispone hasn’t seen an increase in his support.”
JMC - Outcome - Election - Factors - Extent
JMC concluded that the outcome of the election will be determined by two factors: “(1) the extent to which black Election Day turnout will increase in the same manner that early voting turnout did … and (2) the extent to which the ‘also ran’ vote (particularly the vote that went to Ralph Abraham) defects to Governor Edwards.”
JMC offered this more detailed analysis of poll responses by demographic groups:
Contours - Race - Runoff - Voters - Governor
The basic contours of the race have remained constant throughout the runoff: black voters are solidly in Governor Edwards’ corner (87-7% lead over Rispone if undecided “leaners” are included, compared to 88-8% in the last poll). White Democrats favor Edwards 59-37% (60-37% in the last poll). Rispone leads and has gained some strength (but does not dominate) among white Independents: 59-34% (56-38% in the last poll).
Among Republicans, Rispone’s support remains solid: 79-11% (79-17% in...
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