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Futures prices now reflect a near certainty that the Federal Reserve will lower its target interest rate range at its two-day meeting at the end of this month.
The chances of an October cut, as measured by the prices of fed funds futures and calculated by the CME Group, rose to 92.5 percent on Thursday following a weaker than expected report on the U.S. services sector. The prior day, the market indicated a 77 percent chance. A week ago, it was just a 49 percent chance.
Odds - Rate - Cut - December - Chance
The odds now favor another rate cut in December and give a reasonable chance of one in January. The chances of a December cut moved up to 54.6 percent on Thursday from 38.6 percent on Wednesday. A week ago, the odds were just about 19 percent.
Another cut in January, which would reduce the Fed’s target to between just 1 percent and 1.25 percent, now has a 30 percent chance, up from 18 percent yesterday and just 6.7 percent a week ago.
Survey - Data - Institute - Supply - Management
Survey data from the Institute for Supply Management this week indicated that the manufacturing sector may have contracted for the...
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I find it extremely funny when people keep voting and expecting the government to change!