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A poll released on Friday that shows Democrat Dan McCready leading Republican Dan Bishop by four points in the September 10 special election in North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District apparently oversampled Democrats.
“The poll, conducted jointly by Republican polling firm Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs, a Democrat polling firm, surveyed 551 likely special election voters for Inside Elections magazine between August 26 and August 28, showing McCready with 46 percent to Bishop’s 42 percent. McCready’s 4-point lead is within the poll’s 4.2 percent margin of error,” Breitbart News reported on Saturday.
Toplines - Party - Breakdown - Poll - Respondents
“According to the weighted toplines, the party breakdown of poll respondents was Democrat plus 10, with 42 percent of respondents identifying as Democrat and 32 percent identifying as Republican. In contrast, the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District is Republican plus 8,” Breitbart News noted.
The sampling methodology used by Harper Polling/Clarity Campaign Labs in their poll showing Democrat McCready with a four point lead differs dramatically from the sampling methodology used by the only other poll of the race that has been released to the public to date, a May 2019 poll of the Ninth Congressional District special election conducted by JMC Analytics, which showed Republican Dan Bishop with a four point lead over over McCready, 46 percent to 42 percent.
Results - August - Harper - Polling/Clarity - Campaign
It is worth noting that the results of both polls–the August Harper Polling/Clarity Campaign Labs Poll and the May JMC Analytics Poll–showed the race between Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready is a statistical tie. The margin of error in the August Harper Polling/Clarity Campaign Labs Poll is 4.2 percent, making Democrat McCready’s four point lead within the polls margin of error. Similarly, the margin of error in the May JMC Analytics Poll is 5.2 percent, making Republican Bishop’s four point lead within the...
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