China’s July Exports Seen Falling Again, Import Slump To Deepen: Reuters Poll | 7/11/2019 | Staff
jenny1246 (Posted by) Level 3
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports probably fell for a second successive month while imports likely contracted more sharply in July, a Reuters poll showed, hurt by ****-for-tat tariffs in a rapidly escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to slap tariffs on more Chinese goods on top of duties already imposed, and Beijing has responded by halting the purchase of U.S. agricultural products.

Data - Thursday - Line - Economists - Downbeat

If trade data due on Thursday are in line with economists’ downbeat forecasts or worse, it could increase the risks of a global recession and heighten concerns about a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.

The country’s July exports are expected to have declined 2 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 29 economists in the poll, compared with a 1.3% decline in June.

Imports - Decline - July - Demand - Beijing

Imports are likely to post a steeper decline in July, pointing to softer domestic demand, as Beijing’s stimulus measures have failed to put a floor under sliding economic growth.

Trump stunned financial markets last week by vowing to impose 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports from Sept. 1, abruptly breaking a brief ceasefire in a bruising trade war that has disrupted global supply chains and slowed growth.

Tariffs - Step - % - Months - Economists

“If tariffs escalate another step further, to 25% on $300 billion, and remain on for 4-6 months, our economists would expect a recession within three quarters,” said Morgan...
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