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The EU thinks there is an 80% chance of no deal. Yet, less than 50% of the UK thinks the UK will leave at all.
Will Boris Johnson Really Leave the EU?
Boris - Johnson - Pitch - Leadership - Election
Boris Johnson’s pitch throughout the Conservative leadership election has been that October 31st is a hard deadline for Brexit. Having already seen two deadlines come and go, the former Foreign Secretary declared delivering on this third date will be “do or die”.
The public doesn’t buy it, however.
New - YouGov - Tracker - Data - %
New YouGov Tracker Data finds that 56% think it’s unlikely that the UK will have left the EU by the end of October. This is twice the number (27%) who think it’s likely.
Meanwhile, the EU Believes there’s an 80% Chance of No Deal.
Brussels - Campaign - Rhetoric - Pledges - Backstop
Brussels fears his campaign rhetoric and pledges on the backstop and leaving on October 31 “do or die” have made a compromise solution near impossible.
They are now bracing for ill-tempered talks with the new PM over the summer - and having to “shoot down” ideas already tested and discarded by Mrs May.
Member - States - EU - Council - Summit
Member States now expect an EU Council summit on October 17 to become all about crisis planning for a crash out at the end of the month.
Officials also dismissed Mr Johnson’s bid to seek a tariff and quota free “standstill” trading arrangement with the EU in the event on No Deal.
PM - Market - Access
Instead, they said the new PM would have to negotiate similar market access...
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