Turkey’s Economy To Contract In 2019, Limited Growth Ahead: Reuters Poll

www.oann.com | 11/14/2018 | Staff
itsdonaldk (Posted by) Level 3
ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkey’s economy is expected to contract in 2019 for the first time in a decade and to see only modest growth in the following two years, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

The poll of more than 40 economists showed the Turkish economy shrinking 1.5% this year, according to the median forecast. The government’s own sharply-lowered forecast for this year envisages an expansion of 2.3%.

Range - Estimates - July - Reuters - Poll

There was a wide range of estimates in the July 4-16 Reuters poll, from growth of 1% to a contraction of 5%. The poll sees growth of 2.4% in 2020 and 3.4% in 2021.

“Early indicators for Q2 point to a renewed slowdown because of financial market volatility and elevated political uncertainty, which raise the risk of a double-dip recession,” economists at Nomura said.

Quarters - Economy - Contract - % - %

In the second and third quarters of 2019 the economy is forecast to contract by 2.5% and 1.1%, respectively, before returning to growth of just 1.0% in the final three months of the year, the poll medians showed.

Second quarter GDP growth is due to be announced on Sept. 2.

Turkey - Economy - Basis - % - Growth

Turkey’s economy last contracted on an annual basis in 2009, by 4.7%. From 2010 to 2017, its compound growth rate was 6.6% thanks to a construction boom driven by cheap capital following the global financial crisis.

That lira slide pushed inflation to a 15-year high, severely limited companies’ ability to service foreign debt and multiplied bad loans in the banking sector.

Investors - Concern - US - Sanctions - Russia

Meanwhile, investors have voiced concern over possible U.S. sanctions after Russia delivered S-400...
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