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Even while the trade war with China escalated in early May, manufacturers in New York State saw significantly more business activity and turned much more optimistic.
The New York Fed’s May Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business conditions index climbed eight points to 17.8, its highest level in six months. That was the second consecutive monthly improvement.
Conditions - Outlook - Expectations - Conditions - Months
The general conditions outlook, which asks about expectations for conditions six months from now, surged nearly 20 points to a buoyant 30.6.
President Donald Trump announced that tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China would rise to 25 percent on Sunday, May 5th. The survey was sent out May 1 and most of the survey results were received by May 10th, the day tariffs were officially hiked. China’s announcement of its own tariff hike came after most–but not all–of the survey results were in.
Look - Trade - Tensions - Economy - Results
That makes this the first look at how escalating trade tensions might impact the economy. And the results suggest the answer is very little. Economy watchers will look to Thursday’s report from the Philadelphia Fed on its manufacturing survey to see if...
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