Predicting the monsoon a year ahead

ScienceDaily | 2/22/2019 | Staff
moemajor (Posted by) Level 3
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Because of the monsoon's enormous impact on these sectors, his research is of importance to a range of activities, including agriculture, industry, fishing and hydropower.

A frequent visitor to the region, stretching from Nepal to Sri Lanka, Krakauer has devised a methodology that allows forecasts potentially up to a year in advance. Currently, most predictions are made about two months in advance of the South Asia monsoon season that runs from June to September, but it is not known how far ahead skillful forecasts might be possible.

People - Predictors - Forecasts - Grove - School

"People usually use one or two predictors for forecasts," said the Grove School of Engineering associate professor who is also affiliated with the CCNY-based NOAA-CREST. "Many of these predictors are one or another pattern of sea surface temperatures. My question was how do you find which patterns are important for forecasting the monsoon -- the amount of rain and where it will be?"

Unlike other forecasters who use only the sea surface temperature readings from neighboring waters, Krakauer looked at the predictive potential of all the common patterns in the sea surface temperature map. He developed...
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