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For the first time in almost a decade, the Film Independent Spirit Awards are charting their own course. You won’t see a lot of potential Oscar winners on the stage of this year’s ceremony. Outside of a few acting and screenwriting nominees, there is very little overlap this time around and, frankly, it’s a welcome sight. It also means predicting the winners just got a wee bit harder.
Normally, you can predict most of the Spirit Award winners by going with the most commercially successful movie or performance in said films. The Film Independent membership are movie-friendly, but that hasn’t stopped them from anointing “Get Out,” “Moonlight,” “Birdman,” “12 Years A Slave,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “The Artist,” “Black Swan” or “Precious” this decade. All were films that earned over $27 million at the box office and that’s the outlier with “Moonlight.” The second lowest grosser was actually “Birdman” at $42 million. This crop of nominees tops out with two nominees between just $13-14 million, a significant difference.
Mind - Fact - Anyone - Member - Film
Keeping that in mind as well as the fact anyone can pay and become a member of Film Independent, let’s get started, shall we?
Who will win: “Eighth Grade”
Beale - Street - Could - Talk
Who should win: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Upset: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Lowdown - Guess - Eighth - Grade - Summer
Lowdown: This is very close, but our guess is because “Eighth Grade” was released in the summer and has been available in numerous other venues than your local art house it sneaks by Barry Jenkins’ impressive drama.
Who will win: “Hereditary”
Sorry - Bother
Who should win: “Sorry to Bother You”
Upset: “Sorry to Bother You”
Lowdown - Membership - Aversion - Horror - Film
Lowdown: Unless the membership has an aversion to awarding a horror film (very possible) this should go to A24’s big summer hit. If not, Boots Riley‘s surprising art-house smash will take the honor.
Lowdown: Full disclosure, haven’t seen any of these very indie features and guessing most of...
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