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One thing that January has proved - fun-durr-mentals don't matter...
But, with the week ahead one of the busiest of the current earnings season (around 331 companies reporting earnings out of the 2,000 companies that Saxo Bank covers), it's "put up or shut up" for reality and perception to recouple.
Saxo - Peter - Garnry - Notes - US
As Saxo's Peter Garnry notes, US earnings have so far been good against estimates, which is not a big surprise given the lagging nature of earnings. As the chart below suggests, the EBITDA (operating income) growth is slowing, based on the initial data but is still around +5% y/y.
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This week is a bumper one for technology with earnings from Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Alibaba and Amazon.
Growth - Uncertainty - Q4 - Apple - Supplier
Growth uncertainty rose dramatically in Q4 for Apple as one supplier after another reported weakness related to the tech giant. It was therefore not that shocking when the CEO, Tim Cook, announced after New Year that demand was much weaker than estimated and especially that coming from China. Apple reports FY19 Q1 earnings tomorrow after the close with analysts expecting EPS $4.17 up 7% y/y but the consensus estimate is down 14% in the past six months.
Revenue is expected at $84bn down 5% y/y. The big focus point for investors will be any update on Chinese demand constituting around 20% of overall revenue. With the smartphone market saturating faster than expected globally and users extending the average lives of their phones, Apple has to focus on the two businesses Services and Other Products...
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