BENGALURU (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth will take a hit this quarter from the longest-ever government shutdown, keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until at least its April 30-May 1 meeting, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
But the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months held steady from last month at 20 percent, according to the median forecast, while the chance of a recession in the next two years was also steady at a median 40 percent.
Reuters - Poll - Economists - Jan - Cut
The latest Reuters poll of over 100 economists taken Jan 16-23 also showed a cut to the 2019 quarterly growth outlook, in line with a recent run of weaker U.S. economic data pointing to rougher sledding for the economy this year than last year.
“With the economy possibly easing and inflation not stirring in a meaningful way, the case for additional tightening in monetary policy seems weak,” noted Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Capital Markets.
Government - Workers - Month - Economy - Senate
The partial government shutdown affecting 800,000 federal workers has lasted more than a month and is expected to hurt the already-slowing economy. The Senate is preparing for a vote on Thursday to fund the government for three weeks.
Nearly 60 percent of about 50 economists who answered an additional question said the shutdown will have a significant impact on first quarter gross domestic product growth.
Impact - Shutdown - US - GDP - Quarter
When asked how much of an impact the shutdown would have on U.S. GDP for this quarter, the median was for a 0.3 percentage point trim. But forecasts ranged between 0.1 and 1.3 percentage points.
Analysts expected the U.S. economy to grow at a 2.1 percent annualized pace this quarter, down from 2.3 percent forecast last month, followed by 2.3 percent in the second quarter and then slowing to 1.9 percent by the end of the year.
Growth - Forecasts - Quarter
Growth forecasts were trimmed for each quarter this...
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