Arizona Senate: Sinema wins, why did McSally underperform other statewide Republican nominees?

Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion | 11/12/2018 | Kemberlee Kaye
DanRules394 (Posted by) Level 3
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The Arizona Republic estimates there are about 170,000 votes still to be counted. McSally would have to win those by nearly 23 percentage points to retake the lead.

Even worse, 95 percent of the uncounted votes are in Maricopa and Pima counties, the two places where she has underperformed.

Sinema - Crossover - Voters - Republicans - Behavior

Sinema played for crossover voters — those Republicans who may be willing to change their behavior and go for a Democrat — as well as independent voters.

In doing so, Sinema forged a path that allowed her to overtake Pima County, the Democratic-leaning county that anchors McSally’s Tucson-based 2nd Congressional District.

Sinema - Pima - County - McSally - Percentage

Sinema won Pima County over McSally by about 15 percentage points.

And Sinema ran up the numbers in Maricopa County, the state’s most populous area which leans Republican. She won Maricopa County by 3.7 percentage points.

Round - Ballots - Monday - Sinema - Margins

As the latest round of ballots came in on Monday, Sinema again tallied big margins in Maricopa and Pima counties, the state’s population centers, while...
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