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Two-thirds of business economists in the US expect a recession to start in the second half of 2020 according to the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), while a majority of respondents say President Trump's trade war is the greatest threat to the most extended bull market ever. About 10% believe the next economic downturn could begin in 2019, 56% say 2020, and 33% said 2021 or later, according to the August 28-September 17 poll of 51 economists issued by the NABE, as per Bloomberg.
41% of economists said the most significant downside risk was trade policy, followed by 18% of respondents indicating the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, and the same amount saying it could be a stock market repricing event or volatility shock.
Trade - Issues - Panelists - Views - David
"Trade issues are clearly influencing panelists’ views," David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta research director and NABE’s survey chair, said in a statement with the report.
Bloomberg said the economic expansion became the second-longest in May (and will become the longest on record next summer) with no significant warning signs yet and Fed officials upgrading growth forecasts for this year and next -- what could go wrong?
Expansion - Mid-2019 - Nation - Data - National
If the expansion continues into mid-2019, it could become the nation's longest ever, based on data from National Bureau of Economic Research figures that date back to the mid-1850s.
Despite data already showing Trump's trade aggressive tariff policies slowing global growth momentum, disrupting global supply chains, and repricing markets in some developed world but most emerging markets, economists have maintained their rosy forecasts for the US economy, as nothing in their models indicate danger.
% - Respondents - Driver - Performance - Trump
Meanwhile, 33% of respondents said the most significant potential driver of stronger economic performance is Trump's tax cuts (increased financialization: stock buybacks, M&A, dividends, etc...), 27% cited wage increases and 10% said stronger global growth.
Overall, the economists were more...
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The beatings will continue until moral improves.