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How much does the rumored “blue wave” rely on the youth vote? This is of particular concern for Democrats when it comes to the 18-29 demographic which regularly leans toward the progressive side these days. If a recent poll from the Public Religion Research Institute and the Atlantic is any indication, there’s plenty to worry about. (I actually picked this up from a Vox article, but the poll seems legitimate.) While the youngest voters seem to be quite vocal out on the protest beat, fewer than a third of them are sure that they’ll actually show up on election day.
Republicans and Democrats are about equally likely to say they are sure to vote this year (59% vs. 56%). In 2014, Republicans held a considerable edge. More than two-thirds (68%) of Republicans, compared to only about half (51%) of Democrats, said they were absolutely certain to vote in 2014.
Generation - Gap - Voting - Intent - %
The generation gap in reported voting intent is massive. Only 28% of young adults say they are absolutely certain they will vote in the 2018 election compared to 74% of seniors.
Notably, white (56%) and black (52%) Americans are about equally likely to say they are absolutely certain to vote this year. Fewer than one-third (31%) of Hispanic Americans report being absolutely certain about casting a ballot in the coming election.
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Trump - Just saying what the rest won't