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Yesterday I blogged on the latest Axios poll on a few Senate races, which show that the Democrats face losing seats in the chamber.
The opposite has happened in House races as The Cook Political Report changed ratings in 10 races and seven of those moves favor the Democrats. The publication’s monthly review also revealed that Democrats have a slight edge to win the 23 states they need to take over the House.
District - Lean - Democrat - Likely - Democrat
This district went from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat mainly because of the fiasco within the GOP primary that will take place on August 28:
In 2016, physical abuse allegations engulfing GOP nominee Paul Babeu helped hand O’Halleran the seat. This year, the GOP field remains divided between state Sen. Steve Smith, attorney and farmer Tiffany Shedd and Air Force veteran/perennial candidate Wendy Rogers. Seven weeks before the August 28 primary, no one’s broken out and O’Halleran looks likely to win a second term.
Cook - Political - Report - Trump - District
Cook Political Report wrote that even though Trump won the district by one percentage point in November 2016, Democratic Rep. Tom O’Hallerann fits the district perfectly. He was a moderate Republican when he served in the state’s legislature and is now a Blue Dog Democrat in Congress.
In March, O’Halleron became the chair of the Blue Dog’s Special Task Force on Rural America, which is a “working group aimed at promoting bipartisan policies – largely economic.”
Research - April - O'Halleran - Trump - White
Research in April showed that O’Halleran voted with Trump’s White House 10 out of 11 times in the first three months of 2018.
This district is now Solid Democratic. Its Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema has the numbers to take over Republican Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat and her seat will likely stay Democrat. Failed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton blew Trump out of the water in this district in 2016, 54% to 38%.
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