Implications of targeted observation for ENSO prediction

phys.org | 5/25/2018 | Staff
gabriella250 (Posted by) Level 3
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Schematic illustration of targeted observation. Credit: Tao et al.

Scientists from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS) have made observations with respect to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events using an intermediate coupled model developed by IOCAS. They found that observing the central equatorial Pacific favors an improvement in prediction. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25 percent.

Observation - Strategy - Prediction - Observations - Network

Targeted observation is an observing strategy developed after the 1990s. Aimed at obtaining a better prediction with limited observations, the observational network is designed to optimize the initial conditions. In targeted observation, preferentially deploying observations in several key areas (also referred to as sensitive areas) is expected to reduce initial errors such that initial-error-induced prediction errors are also reduced, thus improving the prediction skill. Therefore, how to identify sensitive areas and what the implications are for predictions are the main issues in targeted observation.

Mr. Lingjiang TAO, Dr. Chuan GAO and Professor Ronghua ZHANG, from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), studied targeted observation with respect to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events using an intermediate coupled model developed by IOCAS. Based on idealized OSSEs (observing system simulation experiments), they found that observing the central equatorial Pacific favors an improvement in prediction skill. "When removing...
(Excerpt) Read more at: phys.org
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